The Taurid meteor shower, known for its autumn displays, may pose a heightened threat during the events in 2032 and 2036. This is due to predictions that larger debris from the Comet Encke could enter Earth”s atmosphere and potentially lead to what are colloquially known as “Halloween fireballs.” A new study from the University of New Mexico (UNM), published in Acta Astronautica, suggests that these meteor showers might generate significant Near Earth Objects (NEOs) that necessitate planetary defense strategies.
Usually, meteor showers are caused by smaller particles like dust and rocks, which burn up upon entering the atmosphere. However, larger meteors, such as those responsible for the Tunguska event and the Chelyabinsk incident, can cause considerable damage, though they do not threaten global extinction. The research underscores the importance of having contingency plans to mitigate potential impacts from larger NEOs.
“Planetary defense is the multidisciplinary and internationally coordinated effort to protect the Earth and its inhabitants from impacts by near-Earth objects (NEOs),” stated Mark Boslough, a research professor at UNM and the study”s lead author. He elaborated that effective defense requires ongoing surveys to identify and monitor NEOs, characterizing hazardous ones, modeling potential impact effects, and formulating mitigation strategies.
The study highlights an increased likelihood of airburst-sized NEOs during the upcoming Taurid showers. These objects are substantial enough to explode in the atmosphere without making ground impact, similar to the Chelyabinsk meteor incident. The research team also delved into the theoretical concept of a Taurid resonant swarm (TRS). “The resonant swarm is theoretical, but there is some evidence that a sparse swarm of small objects exists because bright fireballs and seismic signatures of impacts on the moon have been observed at times that the theory has predicted,” Boslough noted.
Should this theory hold true, it suggests that gravitational forces from Jupiter could be aligning the objects in the Taurid stream during their orbits, increasing the likelihood of close encounters with Earth in 2032 and 2036. “Our findings indicate that we have the technology to investigate the Taurid resonant swarm using existing telescopes during these years when the swarm is predicted to approach Earth closely,” Boslough added.
If the theory of the Taurid resonant swarm is validated, the objects involved should be detectable, although many may only be observable after they have passed by Earth. “If we can identify these objects with sufficient lead time, we can take actions to mitigate the risk. The activation of the new infrared telescope, known as the NEO Surveyor, could significantly extend our warning time,” Boslough explained.
While Boslough aims to inform the public about potential risks, he is not trying to incite panic. He compares awareness of asteroid impacts to public understanding of natural disasters like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. “Asteroid impacts represent a small but significant risk, and New Mexico”s national labs are engaged with some of the brightest minds tackling this issue,” he stated.
