In late 2025, the artificial intelligence sector is witnessing a surge of multi-billion dollar agreements, evoking a sense of déjà vu among industry veterans. A select group of companies, including Nvidia, OpenAI, Microsoft, Oracle, AMD, CoreWeave, and xAI, are part of a closed ecosystem where money, computer chips, and cloud credits circulate. This dynamic has contributed to a trillion-dollar boom in AI, but critics are raising alarms about the potential for a bubble reminiscent of the late 1990s dot-com era.
The circular nature of these transactions often leads to the same dollars returning as revenue for different players, creating an illusion of rapid growth. At the center of this circular economy is Nvidia, the world”s leading semiconductor company, which recently achieved a market capitalization of $5 trillion. Its graphics processing units (GPUs) have become essential for powering advanced AI models, such as ChatGPT. Surrounding Nvidia is a growing network of partners, customers, and investors, many of whom are interconnected financially.
A notable example of this circular economy is the agreement between Nvidia and OpenAI, announced in the fall of 2025. Nvidia committed to investing up to $100 billion in OpenAI to support the construction of new AI data centers. In exchange, OpenAI pledged to procure millions of Nvidia GPUs for these facilities. This arrangement implies that Nvidia is essentially financing its own future sales while providing OpenAI with the necessary funds to expand its operations.
Shortly after this agreement, OpenAI entered into another significant deal with Oracle for cloud computing services, valued at $300 billion as part of Project Stargate. This initiative will enable OpenAI to utilize Oracle”s cloud infrastructure to efficiently run and train AI models. To meet OpenAI”s demands, Oracle is expected to invest heavily in Nvidia”s chips, with plans to spend around $40 billion to acquire a substantial number of Nvidia GB200 chips.
The announcement of the OpenAI–Oracle deal led to a 36 percent increase in Oracle”s stock, marking its largest jump in decades. The financial ecosystem surrounding Nvidia and OpenAI creates a sense of security for all participants but raises concerns about self-dealing and systemic risk.
In October 2025, OpenAI also announced a partnership with AMD, tapping into the growing demand for computing power and diversifying its chip suppliers. This agreement involved OpenAI committing to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD”s Instinct GPUs in its infrastructure, with the potential for significant financial stakes for both parties.
Additionally, CoreWeave, a cloud startup, has evolved into a crucial partner for OpenAI and Nvidia. Starting in early 2025, OpenAI began transitioning some AI training workloads to CoreWeave, leading to contracts worth billions. Nvidia has also invested in CoreWeave, further solidifying the interdependent relationships within the sector.
The initial partnership between Microsoft and OpenAI laid the groundwork for today”s interconnected landscape. While Microsoft invested significant sums in OpenAI, the latter”s new agreements have loosened Microsoft”s exclusive grip on OpenAI”s computing needs.
Government involvement is also notable, as seen through the CHIPS Act, which underscores the U.S. government”s role in supporting semiconductor manufacturing and national security. This dynamic illustrates that the financial ecosystem surrounding AI is not solely private.
As OpenAI continues to forge these intricate deals, the implications for the industry are profound. While these partnerships may foster innovation, they also pose risks, particularly if the interconnected financial web collapses. The ongoing developments in the AI sector will require careful scrutiny to ensure sustainable growth and stability.
