The global chip market is projected to achieve double-digit growth for the third consecutive year in 2026, marking a significant trend as industry experts anticipate a semiconductor “supercycle.” Despite some analysts expressing concerns about a potential bubble fueled by artificial intelligence (AI), many believe that fierce competition for AI supremacy will sustain market momentum in the foreseeable future.
This analysis emerged during a key session at SEDEX 2025, a major semiconductor exhibition held on October 23 in the Gangnam District of Seoul. Notable industry analysts, including Noh Geun-chang from Hyundai Motor Securities, Kim Hyok-jung from the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, Jeon Byung-seo from the China Finance and Economy Research Institute, and Lee Seung-woo from Eugene Investment & Securities, convened to discuss market trends in the memory and foundry sectors, alongside the evolving landscape of U.S.-China semiconductor relations.
Lee Seung-woo highlighted that the global chip industry is entering what he describes as a three-year “ultra supercycle” that commenced this year. The market reached USD 630 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth of 19.6 percent from the previous year. Lee anticipates a further increase of 22.2 percent to USD 770 billion this year and an additional 18.4 percent growth to USD 910 billion in 2026. He noted that such consistent double-digit growth has not been observed since the years between 1993 and 1995.
Growth is expected to be primarily driven by demand for memory and logic chips, particularly those utilized in data centers, including high bandwidth memory (HBM) essential for AI processing. While some of OpenAI”s ambitious investment strategies have raised eyebrows, Lee asserted that the drive for cloud-centered growth in the chip sector will persist, and demand for HBM will continue to be robust.
Lee also commented on the implications of U.S. policies regarding the memory sector, suggesting that it is unlikely for the current administration to impose severe sanctions on it, given the significant involvement of U.S. companies in this area. However, he noted the uncertainty surrounding U.S. regulations concerning chips manufactured in China.
Noh Geun-chang projected that the HBM market will surpass USD 50 billion next year, revising previous forecasts which estimated it at USD 47 billion for 2026, excluding OpenAI”s contributions. With OpenAI”s plans to introduce its own accelerator in the latter half of next year, this figure could rise even further. OpenAI”s recent announcement of a partnership with Broadcom to develop its own AI chip poses a challenge to Nvidia”s current dominance in the AI accelerator space, presenting a significant opportunity for Korean memory manufacturers like Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, who are poised to supply HBM chips for AI accelerators.
Noh emphasized that both traditional cloud service providers and OpenAI are in a race to expand their data center capabilities, indicating a substantial investment trend that is unlikely to change in the near future. The ongoing competition for AI infrastructure is expected to persist for at least the next two to three years.
