In a recent report released ahead of the upcoming Conference of Parties (COP 30) in Belem, Brazil, the United Nations indicated that nations are on track to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by only 17% of 2019 levels by the year 2035. This figure is significantly below the level required to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius or even 2 degrees Celsius by the century”s end.
To maintain temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius, countries need to achieve a 37% reduction in emissions, while a 57% cut is necessary to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to the report published on October 28, 2025. The findings stem from the analysis of updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that countries have made regarding their commitments to cut fossil fuel emissions and enhance carbon capture efforts through reforestation by 2035.
Currently, only 64 out of approximately 190 countries have submitted their revised NDCs as of September 30. Notably, India has yet to submit its updated contributions, following its last submission in August 2022.
While the ongoing discussions leading to climate summits typically emphasize emissions reductions, the submitted NDCs also highlight two other critical areas of climate action: adaptation and resilience. The report notes that 73% of these new NDCs incorporate an “adaptation” component, which entails measures to prepare for the impacts of climate change, including natural disasters, rising sea levels, and coastal erosion.
“All NDCs go beyond mitigation to include elements, inter alia, on adaptation, finance, technology transfer, capacity building and addressing loss and damage, reflecting the comprehensive scope of the Paris Agreement,” the report states.
Regarding greenhouse gas emissions, the implementation of the updated NDCs is expected to result in approximately 13.0 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions by 2035, marking a 6% decrease from earlier promises made in previous NDCs submitted between 2020 and 2022. The earlier NDCs projected emission reductions by 2030.
The report identified afforestation, reforestation, and solar energy expansion as areas requiring significant financial support. Additionally, some countries have announced domestic initiatives aimed at tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030, increasing low-carbon hydrogen production, and expanding Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) capabilities.
Both adaptation and mitigation efforts will necessitate financial investments in the trillions of dollars, as highlighted in previous assessments. “While we caution against drawing global conclusions from this report, it still contains some green shoots of good news: countries are making progress and laying out clear stepping stones towards net-zero emissions,” stated Simon Stiell, the UN Climate Change Executive Secretary. “We also know that change is not linear and that some countries have a history of overdelivering. However, we must remain aware that the data set in today”s report provides a limited overview, as the NDCs synthesized represent around one-third of global emissions.”
