According to a recent study, China is poised to surpass the United States as a leader in global science based on a significant trend in collaborative research. An analysis of nearly 6 million research papers indicates that Chinese scientists are now in leadership roles for almost half of all collaborations with US researchers. This shift reflects China“s increasing influence in shaping the international research agenda.
Published on October 28 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the study reveals that in 2023, researchers based in China held 45 percent of leadership positions in joint studies with US counterparts, a notable increase from 30 percent in 2010. If this trend continues, it is projected that China will achieve parity with the US in leadership roles in joint research by 2027 or 2028.
Researchers from Wuhan University, the University of California, Los Angeles, and the University of Chicago utilized a machine-learning model to assess the leadership dynamics of research projects through contribution statements and authorship data. This method provides a more sophisticated way to evaluate scientific influence compared to traditional metrics, which often focus solely on the quantity of publications or citations.
The findings also come at a time when the US research community is facing significant challenges, including budget cuts and layoffs that have driven many American researchers abroad. This upheaval has prompted various countries, including Canada and Denmark, to implement expedited visa programs and funding initiatives aimed at attracting displaced scientists.
In light of potential scientific decoupling between US and China, the authors of the study modeled scenarios where collaborations between the two nations were reduced or eliminated. They found that China“s global leadership share in scientific projects would continue to rise, as Chinese researchers are more likely to lead collaborations with European and other international partners.
The analysis also indicated that China is gaining traction in critical technology sectors. In eight out of eleven key technology areas identified by the US National Science Foundation, such as artificial intelligence and materials science, it is anticipated that China will attain leadership parity with the US before the year 2030.
Furthermore, China is leveraging education as a strategic tool for scientific diplomacy. Since 2012, the Chinese government has invested significant funds to educate foreign students, primarily from Africa and South Asia, under the Belt and Road Initiative. By 2018, nearly half of the international student population in China hailed from these regions, and the study finds that Chinese researchers now spearhead most collaborations with countries involved in this initiative.
