A recent study published in Science Advances highlights the remarkable capabilities of the Ancient Maya in predicting solar eclipses with notable precision. While modern astronomers utilize advanced computer modeling based on Newton”s laws and the celestial movements of the Earth and moon, the Maya relied on meticulously crafted tables made from ink on fig tree bark.
The research indicates that as early as 350 C.E., the Maya had developed a lunar theory that allowed them to track solar eclipses. Indigenous civilizations in present-day Mexico and Guatemala maintained two calendars: a civil calendar consisting of 365 days and a shorter “divinatory” calendar of 260 days. This latter calendar was utilized by specialized individuals known as “daykeepers” to interpret the destinies of people born on specific dates. By around 500 B.C.E., this divinatory calendar had become linked to various lunar phases.
Among the surviving Maya texts, the Dresden Codex stands out as the most significant. Dated to approximately 1200 C.E., this astronomical document spans about 3.5 meters (approximately 11 feet) in length and is folded like an accordion. Within its pages, it contains not only ritual and divination calendars but also a table purportedly used for predicting solar eclipses. Previous historians suggested that this table was designed specifically for eclipse prediction; however, the recent findings propose that it primarily served as a general lunar calendar.
The researchers arrived at this conclusion by analyzing the mathematical structure of the table alongside a historical database of solar eclipses. They discovered that the total number of days recorded in the table, 11,960, aligns more closely with the 260-day calendar than with the observable eclipse cycles between 350 and 1150 C.E. Specifically, the number of days neatly divides by 260, yielding a quotient of 46.
In their analysis, the authors also examined the 405 lunar months reflected in the table, comparing this figure to the number of nodal passages that are pivotal in predicting eclipses. They found that the average duration of 405 lunar months is only 0.11259 days short of 11,960. In contrast, the 69 nodal passages were approximately 1.67486 days short, indicating a discrepancy nearly 15 times greater.
Another intriguing aspect of the research centers on how the Maya maintained such accuracy in their predictions. The study revealed that they employed a system involving overlapping tables rather than starting anew after the conclusion of an eclipse table. The daykeepers would often reset their eclipse tables to one of two earlier points on the previous table, typically at intervals of either 358 lunations or 223 lunations. The calculations suggest that resets occurred four times at 385 months for every one at 223 months.
The researchers theorize that after about three cycles of 405 months, the daykeepers would have discerned a consistent pattern, allowing them to establish a general framework for eclipse predictions by 453 C.E. Thus, it is plausible that tables akin to those found in the Dresden Codex could have been in existence around 550 C.E.
