Research from Oxford University indicates that an overwhelming majority of mega infrastructure projects—nine out of ten—exceed their initial budgets. This analysis, which encompasses 16,000 projects, was spearheaded by project management expert Bent Flyvbjerg. The findings reveal a consistent pattern of cost overruns, with averages frequently reaching double-digit percentages.
The crux of the issue lies in the timing of critical decisions. Often, these choices are made early on by project owners when they have the most flexibility but the least amount of information. By the time specialized construction knowledge is integrated, many pivotal decisions have already been made, limiting the project”s potential.
“The decisions you make at the beginning, when you have the most options and the lowest cost to change, fundamentally shape what you can deliver at the end,” notes Jasna Sims, head of client delivery at Akordi, a firm recognized in The Australian Financial Review as one of the 2025 Most Innovative Companies.
Akordi employs a model that incorporates hindsight analysis, predictive analytics, and optimization techniques during the pre-feasibility and conceptual design phases. This approach aims to maximize the impact of early decisions.
“We assist clients in navigating the decision landscape—identifying key choices that influence outcomes, determining optimal timing for those decisions, and ensuring alignment with project objectives,” adds Sims. “Our recommendations are transparent and based on clear reasoning, allowing clients to comprehend the rationale and assumptions behind each choice.”
The complexity surrounding mega projects is increasing. Dr. Regan Crooks, director of strategic programmes at international engineering and construction firm Laing O”Rourke, highlights that projects entering the planning phase today are confronted with unprecedented delivery challenges. Factors such as economic fluctuations, geopolitical supply chain disruptions, talent shortages, and evolving regulations present both hurdles and opportunities.
“It is crucial to achieve positive community outcomes from these initiatives,” remarks Crooks. “Involving construction expertise early enables a better understanding of how external variables could affect project delivery, allowing for resilience to be built into the approach from the start.”
He further explains, “What has changed is the practicality. With the combination of Akordi”s construction expertise and artificial intelligence capabilities, we can now evaluate different construction methods, understand their implications, and assess trade-offs more rapidly and rigorously than ever before.”
If Flyvbjerg”s analysis proves accurate, a significant portion of Australia”s infrastructure pipeline, valued at $213 billion, risks delays and budget overruns unless project execution methods are fundamentally revised.
In a recent large-scale program in Victoria, schedule pressures emerged just six months into delivery, threatening timelines as the asset owner faced coordination difficulties among multiple parties—a common issue in complex infrastructure projects. The contractor turned to Akordi to explore alternative construction strategies and their projected performance.
Over several weeks, Akordi modeled various construction sequencing, temporary works approaches, and interface management techniques. “This demonstrated the potential for months of schedule savings and a quadrupled return on investment,” Sims states. “This method allows for schedule recovery—or mid-course correction—when challenges arise, which traditionally has been rare according to Flyvbjerg”s research.”
Initial results from Akordi”s involvement show promising outcomes, including a five percent reduction in costs and a schedule decrease of seven to eleven percent. This could translate to significant financial savings within a $3 billion, ten-year project, potentially reducing costs by $150 million and saving up to a year in construction time.
One of the most advantageous applications lies in manufacturing-led construction, off-site assembly, modularization, and design for manufacturing and assembly (DFMA), which can provide optimal value for targeted programs. “As pioneers of modern construction methods, Laing O”Rourke has consistently found that DFMA leads to substantial program enhancements,” Crooks explains. “The essential factor is to engage that expertise with owners early, when the impact and opportunity are most significant.”
Akordi empowers asset owners to evaluate and validate manufacturing techniques against traditional methods, quantifying improvements in schedule and risk in real time. This capability is particularly crucial as skill shortages and supply chain constraints complicate the execution of conventional methods.
The potential for AI-driven construction intelligence to transform infrastructure delivery outcomes at scale remains to be fully realized, but early indications are encouraging. “Enhanced decision-making in the face of complexity—that”s what sets us apart,” Crooks asserts. “Combining in-depth construction knowledge with advanced analytical capabilities leads to commercially significant improvements in decision-making.” For Australia”s expanding infrastructure pipeline, the opportunities are evident, and the preliminary evidence suggests they are worth pursuing.
