The global chip market is expected to experience double-digit growth for the third consecutive year by 2026, signaling a rare trend in the industry as excitement builds around a projected semiconductor “supercycle.” Despite some analysts expressing concerns about a possible bubble due to artificial intelligence (AI), experts believe that fierce competition for AI leadership will sustain industry momentum in the near future.
This outlook emerged during a significant session of SEDEX 2025, a Semiconductor Exhibition held at Coex in Gangnam District, southern Seoul, on October 23. Various industry analysts convened to discuss market trends in the memory and foundry sectors, alongside the evolving dynamics of semiconductor relations between the United States and China.
Among the speakers at the seminar were Noh Geun-chang from Hyundai Motor Securities, Kim Hyok-jung from the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, Jeon Byung-seo from the China Finance and Economy Research Institute, and Lee Seung-woo from Eugene Investment & Securities. They provided insights into the global semiconductor market, particularly focusing on memory and foundry trends.
Lee forecasted that the global chip industry is entering what he termed a three-year “ultra supercycle” starting this year. The market, which reached $630 billion in 2024, is estimated to grow by 22.2 percent to $770 billion this year and by 18.4 percent to $910 billion in 2026. “If that happens, it will mark the first time since 1993 to 1995 that the industry has achieved double-digit growth for three consecutive years,” Lee stated, emphasizing the rarity of such consistency.
Growth is anticipated to be concentrated in memory and logic chips, particularly those utilized in data centers. High bandwidth memory (HBM), essential for AI processing, is expected to see significant demand. Lee also noted that while some of OpenAI”s investment plans may seem overly ambitious, the trend towards cloud-centered growth in the chip market will persist.
“Because U.S. firms are deeply involved in the memory sector, it”s unlikely that the Donald Trump administration would impose harsh sanctions there,” Lee commented, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies on chips manufactured in China.
During the exhibition, Noh projected that the HBM market will surpass $50 billion next year, adjusting previous estimates which had anticipated $47 billion for 2026, excluding OpenAI”s initiatives. He mentioned that with OpenAI planning to introduce its own accelerator in the latter half of the next year, the market figures could rise even further.
OpenAI”s recent announcement regarding its collaboration with Broadcom to develop its own AI chip and system poses a challenge to Nvidia”s current dominance in the AI accelerator market. This development is viewed as a significant opportunity for Korean manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, who supply HBM chips for AI accelerators.
Noh added, “Traditional cloud providers and OpenAI are now racing to build more data centers. It”s a meaningful investment, and I don”t foresee the situation changing anytime soon. The competition for AI infrastructure is likely to endure for at least the next two to three years.”
